| 李根成.某型导弹靶试方案的风险与成本分析[J].装备环境工程,2018,15(4):91-94. LI Gen-cheng.Risk and Cost Analysis of Firing Test Program for A missile[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2018,15(4):91-94. |
| 某型导弹靶试方案的风险与成本分析 |
| Risk and Cost Analysis of Firing Test Program for A missile |
| 投稿时间：2017-12-12 修订日期：2018-04-15 |
| DOI：10.7643/ issn.1672-9242.2018.04.018 |
| 中文关键词: 靶试 抽样检验 生产方风险 使用方风险 |
| 英文关键词:firing test sampling inspection producer′s risk consumer′s risk |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 研究传统的二次抽样检验靶试方案和使用方推荐的一次抽样检验靶试方案中的使用方风险和生产方风险，并计算使用方在接收导弹时采用不同靶试方案需承担的费用。方法 首先建立导弹自主飞行可靠度与单发杀伤概率之间的关系，通过计算抽样检验中的接收概率得出使用方风险和生产方风险。通过计算不同可靠度下的接收概率及靶试费用得出使用方接收每发导弹平均分摊的靶试费用。结果 传统靶试方案中使用方风险和生产方风险相当，而新靶试方案中生产方风险高出使用方风险较多，且若采用新靶试方案，使用方每接收1发导弹需承担的靶试费用比传统靶试方案的费用高。结论 最后建议使用方仍沿用传统的二次抽样检验靶试方案。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To study consumer's risk and producer's risk in the traditional twice sampling inspection firing test program and the new single sampling inspection firing test program recommended by the consumer, and calculates the expense difference between the two firing test programs when the missiles are accepted by the consumer. Methods The relation between the missile’s self-flying reliability and the single killing probability was established firstly, then the consumer's risk and producer's risk were acquired through calculating the acceptance probability in the sampling inspection. The expense allocated to each missile afforded by the consumer using the different firing test program was acquired through calculating the acceptance probability with the different reliability and the firing test cost. Results The producer's risk was approximately equal to the consumer's risk in the traditional firing test program, but the producer's risk was much higher than the consumer's risk in the new firing test program, and the allocated expense on a missile afforded by the consumer using the new firing test program was higher than that when using the traditional firing test program. Conclusion Finally, it is suggested to adopts the traditional twice sampling inspection program. |
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