| 翟科达,顾晓辉,孙丽,潘守华.基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的某弹用弹簧可靠性评估[J].装备环境工程,2022,19(4):1-7. ZHAI Ke-da,GU Xiao-hui,SUN Li,PAN Shou-hua.Reliability Assessment of the Ammunition Spring Based on Multiple Random Effects Wiener Process[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2022,19(4):1-7. |
| 基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的某弹用弹簧可靠性评估 |
| Reliability Assessment of the Ammunition Spring Based on Multiple Random Effects Wiener Process |
| 投稿时间：2021-07-02 修订日期：2021-08-23 |
| DOI：10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2022.04.001 |
| 中文关键词: 随机效应Wiener过程 时间尺度变换 非线性 样本差异性 多元性能 Copula函数中图分类号:TJ410.6 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1672-9242(2022)04-0001-07 |
| 英文关键词:random effect Wiener process time scale transformation nonlinear sample difference multivariate performance Copula function |
| 基金项目:国防科技预先研究项目(004040204) |
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| Author | Institution |
| ZHAI Ke-da | School of Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China |
| GU Xiao-hui | School of Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China |
| SUN Li | School of Mechanical Engineering, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Jiangsu Zhenjiang 212100, China |
| PAN Shou-hua | Xi'an Qinghua Co.Ltd., North Special Energy Group Co.Ltd., Xi'an 710025, China |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 解决某弹用弹簧可靠性评估中存在的不确定性问题。方法 对某弹用弹簧进行加速退化试验，试验过程中发现其具有多个性能退化参数，并且其退化过程具有非线性、随机性及样本差异性的特征。为了对其退化过程进行数学表征，提出一种基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的退化模型。采用基于时间尺度变换的非线性Wiener过程，描述弹簧退化过程中的非线性与随机性。基于随机效应模型，对样本的差异性进行表征，利用Copula函数描述多元性能参数之间的相互作用关系。最后推导弹簧失效寿命的概率密度函数、可靠度函数。结果 在贮存条件为25 ℃、可靠度为0.9时，基于构建的多元随机效应Wiener过程模型，当考虑性能间的相关性时，得到某弹用弹簧的贮存寿命为12 a；不考虑性能间的相关性时，得到其贮存寿命为11.5 a。结论 构建的多元随机退化模型为该弹药健康状态管理提供了相应的理论依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to solve the uncertainty in reliability evaluation of the ammunition spring, the accelerated degradation experiment is carried out on it. During the experiment, it is found that it has multiple performance degradation parameters, and the degradation process has the characteristics of nonlinearity, randomness and sample difference. In order to characterize the degradation process mathematically, a degradation model based on multivariate random effects Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the nonlinear Wiener process based on time scale transformation is used to describe the nonlinear and randomness of the spring degradation process, and the sample difference is characterized based on the random effect model. Then, Copula function is used to describe the interaction between multiple performance parameters. Finally, the probability density function and reliability function of the spring failure life are derived. When the storage condition is 25 ℃ and the reliability is 0.9, based on the multivariate random effect Wiener process model constructed in this paper, the storage life of a certain ammunition spring is 12 years when the correlation between performance is considered, and 11.5 years when the correlation between performance is not considered. The multivariate random degradation model constructed provides a theoretical basis for the health state management of the ammunition. |
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