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| Consumption Forecasting of Missile Spare Parts Based on Improved GM （1， 1）Model |
| Received:November 07, 2011 Revised:June 15, 2012 |
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| DOI： |
| KeyWord:missile spare parts GM （1, 1）model influencing factors consumption forecasting |
| Author | Institution |
| ZHAO Jian-zhong |
1. Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University， Yantai ， China;2. Unit 92752 of PLA， Hefei ， China |
| XU Ting-xue |
Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University， Yantai ， China |
| YIN Yan-tao |
Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University， Yantai ， China |
| GUO Hong-chao |
Unit 91528 of PLA， Shanghai ， China |
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| Abstract: |
| Missile spare parts consumption is synthetically affected by multi-factors and not easily be expressed precisely. The thought of forecasting missile spare parts consumption with grey system theory was put forward to solve the problem. The practice of spare parts support proved that missile spare parts consumption is correlated with equipment intrinsic reliability, combat mission and environmental condition; so amendatory GM（1， 1）model with influencing factors was established. The results proved the model is referring to main influencing factors of missile spare parts consumption, has better forecast precision, and has important application value. |
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