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| Reliability Calculation Method of Pressure Resistant Spherical Shell Based on Importance Sampling Method |
| Received:May 18, 2023 Revised:June 27, 2023 |
| View Full Text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| DOI：10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2023.09.005 |
| KeyWord:pressure resistant spherical shell adaptive Kriging importance sampling method, minimal failure probability important direction without failure equation |
| Author | Institution |
| FENG Shi-chao |
China Ship Scientific Research Center, Jiangsu Wuxi , China;Taihu Laboratory of Deepsea Technological Science, Jiangsu Wuxi , China;State Key Laboratory of Deep-sea Manned Vehicles, Jiangsu Wuxi , China |
| WAN Zheng-quan |
China Ship Scientific Research Center, Jiangsu Wuxi , China;Taihu Laboratory of Deepsea Technological Science, Jiangsu Wuxi , China;State Key Laboratory of Deep-sea Manned Vehicles, Jiangsu Wuxi , China |
| LI Yan-qing |
China Ship Scientific Research Center, Jiangsu Wuxi , China;Taihu Laboratory of Deepsea Technological Science, Jiangsu Wuxi , China;State Key Laboratory of Deep-sea Manned Vehicles, Jiangsu Wuxi , China |
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| Abstract: |
| The work aims to solve the reliability calculation problem of pressure resistant spherical shells with minimal failure probability. Based on adaptive Kriging, a reliability calculation method of pressure resistant spherical shells was proposed in combination with the importance sampling method. This method mainly included obtaining important direction based on the building Kriging model of high failure probability, computing design points of the model of low failure probability, building a Kriging model of low failure probability centered on the design point, and using this model to carry out reliability calculation with the importance sampling method. The failure probability of two examples was calculated with the importance sampling method proposed in this paper and the Monte Carlo method. The calculation results showed that the method proposed in this paper had high calculation accuracy and efficiency. The method was also used to calculate the failure probability of a pressure resistant spherical shell under working load, and the failure probability was 4.094×10–96. The research can provide reference for reliability calculation of extremely low failure probability without failure equation. |
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